Here's something that seems to get overlooked in all the
commentary about investors exiting the market.
Existing property holders - those who purchased before
Budget night - have been grandfathered under the current rules. They can
continue to negatively gear, and their CGT arrangements remain unchanged for
gains up to 1 July 2027.
That's actually a very sensible protection for people who
made decisions based on the existing rules. But it creates an unintended
consequence: those investors now have a very strong incentive not to sell.
If you sell an established property, you trigger the new CGT
arrangements on post-July 2027 gains. If you hold, your grandfathering
protections remain intact.
The rational decision for most existing investors is to hold
longer than they otherwise may have.
Less turnover means fewer properties on the market. Fewer
properties on the market means buyers face less choice, not more. And that
pushes up property values in these established locations.
The government may have set out to create a more level
playing field, but the lockup of existing stock could work directly against
that goal.
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Jason Gwerder
Saturday, 25 July 2026