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The lock-In effect nobody is talking about

Here's something that seems to get overlooked in all the commentary about investors exiting the market.

Existing property holders - those who purchased before Budget night - have been grandfathered under the current rules. They can continue to negatively gear, and their CGT arrangements remain unchanged for gains up to 1 July 2027.

That's actually a very sensible protection for people who made decisions based on the existing rules. But it creates an unintended consequence: those investors now have a very strong incentive not to sell.

If you sell an established property, you trigger the new CGT arrangements on post-July 2027 gains. If you hold, your grandfathering protections remain intact.

The rational decision for most existing investors is to hold longer than they otherwise may have.

Less turnover means fewer properties on the market. Fewer properties on the market means buyers face less choice, not more. And that pushes up property values in these established locations.

The government may have set out to create a more level playing field, but the lockup of existing stock could work directly against that goal.

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Jason Gwerder
Saturday, 25 July 2026


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